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	<title>Mr. Mortgage @ Mason McDuffie Mortgage &#187; Economy</title>
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		<title>Are jobs obsolete?</title>
		<link>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/are-jobs-obsolete/</link>
		<comments>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/are-jobs-obsolete/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Sep 2011 16:47:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Mortgage</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[jobs]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[I found this article on www.cnn.com.  I  thought it was quite interesting with a good perspective so I decided to repost it.  CNN) &#8212; The U.S. Postal Service appears to be the latest casualty in digital technology&#8217;s slow but steady replacement of working humans. Unless an external source of funding comes in, the post office [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/09/imagesCA0ZZNF4.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-2106" src="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/09/imagesCA0ZZNF4.jpg" alt="" width="256" height="197" /></a>I found this article on <a href="http://www.cnn.com/">www.cnn.com</a>.  I  thought it was quite interesting with a good perspective so I decided to repost it. </p>
<p>CNN) &#8212; The U.S. Postal Service appears to be the latest casualty in digital technology&#8217;s slow but steady replacement of working humans. Unless an external source of funding comes in, the post office will have to scale back its operations drastically, or simply shut down altogether. That&#8217;s 600,000 people who would be out of work, and another 480,000 pensioners facing an adjustment in terms.</p>
<p>We can blame a right wing attempting to undermine labor, or a left wing trying to preserve unions in the face of government and corporate cutbacks. But the real culprit &#8212; at least in this case &#8212; is e-mail. People are sending 22% fewer pieces of mail than they did four years ago, opting for electronic bill payment and other net-enabled means of communication over envelopes and stamps.</p>
<p>New technologies are wreaking havoc on employment figures &#8212; from EZpasses ousting toll collectors to Google-controlled self-driving automobiles rendering taxicab drivers obsolete. Every new computer program is basically doing some task that a person used to do. But the computer usually does it faster, more accurately, for less money, and without any health insurance costs.</p>
<p>We like to believe that the appropriate response is to train humans for higher level work. Instead of collecting tolls, the trained worker will fix and program toll-collecting robots. But it never really works out that way, since not as many people are needed to make the robots as the robots replace.</p>
<p>And so the president goes on television telling us that the big issue of our time is jobs, jobs, jobs &#8212; as if the reason to build high-speed rails and fix bridges is to put people back to work. But it seems to me there&#8217;s something backwards in that logic. I find myself wondering if we may be accepting a premise that deserves to be questioned.</p>
<p>I am afraid to even ask this, but since when is unemployment really a problem? I understand we all want paychecks &#8212; or at least money. We want food, shelter, clothing, and all the things that money buys us. But do we all really want jobs?</p>
<p>We&#8217;re living in an economy where productivity is no longer the goal, employment is. That&#8217;s because, on a very fundamental level, we have pretty much everything we need. America is productive enough that it could probably shelter, feed, educate, and even provide health care for its entire population with just a fraction of us actually working.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.fao.org/dg/1999/millen-e.htm" target="new">U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization</a>, there is enough food produced to provide everyone in the world with 2,720 kilocalories per person per day. And that&#8217;s even after America disposes of thousands of tons of crop and dairy just to keep market prices high. Meanwhile, American banks overloaded with foreclosed properties are <a href="http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2009/05/05/nr.bank.demolishes.home.cnn?iref=allsearch">demolishing vacant dwellings</a> <a href="http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2009/05/05/nr.bank.demolishes.home.cnn?iref=allsearch"><img src="http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/.element/img/3.0/global/icons/video_icon.gif" alt="Video" width="16" height="10" border="0" /></a> to get the empty houses off their books.</p>
<p>Our problem is not that we don&#8217;t have enough stuff &#8212; it&#8217;s that we don&#8217;t have enough ways for people to work and prove that they deserve this stuff.</p>
<p>Jobs, as such, are a relatively new concept. People may have always worked, but until the advent of the corporation in the early Renaissance, most people just worked for themselves. They made shoes, plucked chickens, or created value in some way for other people, who then traded or paid for those goods and services. By the late Middle Ages, most of Europe was thriving under this arrangement.</p>
<p>The only ones losing wealth were the aristocracy, who depended on their titles to extract money from those who worked. And so they invented the chartered monopoly. By law, small businesses in most major industries were shut down and people had to work for officially sanctioned corporations instead. From then on, for most of us, working came to mean getting a &#8220;job.&#8221;</p>
<p>The Industrial Age was largely about making those jobs as menial and unskilled as possible. Technologies such as the assembly line were less important for making production faster than for making it cheaper, and laborers more replaceable. Now that we&#8217;re in the digital age, we&#8217;re using technology the same way: to increase efficiency, lay off more people, and increase corporate profits.</p>
<p>While this is certainly bad for workers and unions, I have to wonder just how truly bad is it for people. Isn&#8217;t this what all this technology was for in the first place? The question we have to begin to ask ourselves is not how do we employ all the people who are rendered obsolete by technology, but how can we organize a society around something other than employment? Might the spirit of enterprise we currently associate with &#8220;career&#8221; be shifted to something entirely more collaborative, purposeful, and even meaningful?</p>
<p>Instead, we are attempting to use the logic of a scarce marketplace to negotiate things that are actually in abundance. What we lack is not employment, but a way of fairly distributing the bounty we have generated through our technologies, and a way of creating meaning in a world that has already produced far too much stuff.</p>
<p>The communist answer to this question was just to distribute everything evenly. But that sapped motivation and never quite worked as advertised. The opposite, libertarian answer (and the way we seem to be going right now) would be to let those who can&#8217;t capitalize on the bounty simply suffer. Cut social services along with their jobs, and hope they fade into the distance.</p>
<p>But there might still be another possibility &#8212; something we couldn&#8217;t really imagine for ourselves until the digital era. As a pioneer of virtual reality, Jaron Lanier, <a href="http://edge.org/conversation/the-local-global-flip" target="new">recently pointed out</a>, we no longer need to make stuff in order to make money. We can instead exchange information-based products.</p>
<p>We start by accepting that food and shelter are basic human rights. The work we do &#8212; the value we create &#8212; is for the rest of what we want: the stuff that makes life fun, meaningful, and purposeful.</p>
<p>This sort of work isn&#8217;t so much employment as it is creative activity. Unlike Industrial Age employment, digital production can be done from the home, independently, and even in a peer-to-peer fashion without going through big corporations. We can make games for each other, write books, solve problems, educate and inspire one another &#8212; all through bits instead of stuff. And we can pay one another using the same money we use to buy real stuff.</p>
<p>For the time being, as we contend with what appears to be a global economic slowdown by destroying food and demolishing homes, we might want to stop thinking about jobs as the main aspect of our lives that we want to save. They may be a means, but they are not the ends.</p>
<p><em>The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Douglas Rushkoff.</em></p>
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		<title>US Credit downgrade &amp; what it means!</title>
		<link>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/us-credit-downgrade-what-it-means/</link>
		<comments>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/us-credit-downgrade-what-it-means/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Aug 2011 22:32:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Mortgage</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Standard and Poors™ has downgraded the US sovereign rating to AA+, and kept the rating outlook at negative, suggesting improvement in the fiscal situation will be needed to avoid further downgrades. Federal agencies have issued guidance clarifying that this action will not affect risk weightings for US Treasury or agency debt. Key Points: 1. At [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/08/SP2.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-2100" src="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/08/SP2.jpg" alt="" width="340" height="255" /></a>Standard and Poors™ has downgraded the US sovereign rating to AA+, and kept the rating outlook at negative, suggesting improvement in the fiscal situation will be needed to avoid further downgrades. Federal agencies have issued guidance clarifying that this action will not affect risk weightings for US Treasury or agency debt.<br />
<strong>Key Points:</strong></p>
<p>1. At the conclusion of a tumultuous week in world financial markets, the rating agency Standard and Poorâ€™s has downgraded the United States long-term sovereign credit rating from AAA for the first time in its history. The new rating is AA+ and the outlook remains negative, implying the potential for further downgrades if there is no improvement in the fiscal outlook.</p>
<p>2. In describing an &#8220;upside scenario&#8221; of greater than expected fiscal consolidation, S&amp;P indicates the result would be AA+ with stable outlook. The upshot is that they appear to see little chance of restoring the previous AAA rating in the near term even if greater deficit reduction occurs. An additional one notch downgrade to AA could result from S&amp;Pâ€™s â€œdownside scenarioâ€ involving â€œless favorableâ€ macro assumptions (2.5% real/4% nominal growth) and a failure to enact the $1.2trn in spending cuts called for in the Budget Control Act (BCA) enacted earlier this week. The BCA imposes a Nov. 23, 2011 deadline on a special congressional committee to agree on the additional savings, and Dec. 23, 2011 for Congress to pass them. Therefore, ratings uncertainty will continue.</p>
<p>3. The US short term rating is affirmed and still the highest possible (A1+), implying no effect on money market funds.</p>
<p>4. S&amp;P has shed a bit more light on the metrics used to arrive at this decision, indicating that they have adopted the Congressional Budget Officeâ€™s alternate scenario as their baseline. The differentiating factor between AAA and AA+ appears to be not the level of debt at mid-decade, but rather the trajectory of the debt-to-GDP ratio, which S&amp;P expects to decline by 2015 in &#8220;relevant peers&#8221; with AAA ratings. This actually implies it might be slightly easier for the US to recover the AAA rating than if the threshold were an absolute level. The political debate seems to have played a large part in the decision to downgrade, and is referenced frequently in S&amp;Pâ€™s press release, e.g. â€œthe downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges&#8221;.</p>
<p>5. US federal agencies have just issued guidance clarifying that S&amp;Pâ€™s action will not affect risk weightings for US Treasury or agency debt, or the treatment of this debt under other federal banking agency regulations.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>June 2011 Newsletter</title>
		<link>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/june-2011-newsletter/</link>
		<comments>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/june-2011-newsletter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jun 2011 17:12:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Mortgage</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[&#60;!&#8211; &#8211;&#62;   This newsletter is compliments of: Eric M. Burgess Mortgage Consultant NMLS# 240240 Office: 707-526-6100 Cell: 707-508-5600 San Diego Direct: 619-238-2700                     Thought of the month &#8220;A dream is your creative vision for your life in the future. You must break out of your [...]]]></description>
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<p><span class="gray-font"><span class="green-font">&#8220;A dream is your creative vision for your life in the future. You must break out of your current comfort zone and become comfortable with the unfamiliar and the unknown.&#8221;</span></p>
<p></span><span class="green-font">~<a class="gray-font" href="http://www.quotegeek.com/index.php?action=viewcategory&amp;categoryid=149"> Denis Waitley</a></span></td>
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<p><span class="header2">Eric M. Burgess </span></p>
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		<title>Study finds older Americans losing $2.9 billion annually to financial abuse</title>
		<link>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/study-finds-older-americans-losing-2-9-billion-annually-to-financial-abuse/</link>
		<comments>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/study-finds-older-americans-losing-2-9-billion-annually-to-financial-abuse/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jun 2011 00:08:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Mortgage</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[A new report from the MetLife Mature Market Institute reveals that older Americans are losing $2.9 billion annually to elder financial abuse, an increase of 12 percent over estimates reported in 2008. “The MetLife Study of Elder Financial Abuse: Crimes of Occasion, Desperation and Predation Against America’s Elders” also reports that crimes committed by strangers [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/06/abuse.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-2063" src="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/06/abuse.jpg" alt="" width="210" height="173" /></a>A new report from the MetLife Mature Market Institute reveals that older Americans are losing $2.9 billion annually to elder financial abuse, an increase of 12 percent over estimates reported in 2008.</p>
<p>“The MetLife Study of Elder Financial Abuse: Crimes of Occasion, Desperation and Predation Against America’s Elders” also reports that crimes committed by strangers made up more than half of reported cases of elder financial abuse, but one-third of the crimes involved family, friends and neighbors as perpetrators.</p>
<p>“Our findings illustrate the dehumanization of victims that takes place in the process of financial abuse and further destruction of financial security that occurs,” states Sandra Timmermann, Ed.D., director of the MetLife Mature Market Institute. “In almost all instances, financial exploitation is achieved through deceit, threats and emotional manipulation of an elder.”</p>
<p>Produced in collaboration with the National Committee for the Prevention of Elder Abuse and the Center for Gerontology at Virginia Tech, the study looked at data collected through a media database of news articles reporting on crimes against older Americans. Results were compared to the institute’s first study on elder abuse, produced in 2008, “Broken Trust: Elders, Family and Finances.”</p>
<p>Dr. Timmermann presented the findings from the new study a U.S. Senate briefing on elder financial abuse on June 2.</p>
<p>“Elder financial abuse invariably results in losses of human rights and dignity,” adds Karen A. Roberto, Ph.D., director of the Center for Gerontology at Virginia Tech. “Despite growing public awareness from a parade of high-profile financial abuse victims, it remains underreported, under-recognized, and under-prosecuted.”</p>
<p>The report contains the stories of some of those targeted and the circumstances involving the crimes perpetrated against them. It is accompanied by a consumer guide, “The Essentials: Preventing Elder Abuse,” and tip sheets for older adults and family caregivers. The full study, consumer guide and tip sheets can be viewed at <a href="http://www.metlife.com/mmi/index.html" target="_blank">www.maturemarketinstitute.com</a></p>
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		<title>Jobs Report Upbeat, But Does It Spell Recovery?</title>
		<link>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/jobs-report-upbeat-but-does-it-spell-recovery/</link>
		<comments>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/jobs-report-upbeat-but-does-it-spell-recovery/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 May 2011 21:23:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Mortgage</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Friday, the Labor Department reported the economy added 244,000 jobs in April. After adding 235,000 and 221,000 jobs in February and March, this should indicate the economy is finally accomplishing momentum; however, rising gas prices and sluggish consumer demand cloud the outlook. A surge in April first-time jobless claims indicate growth is stuck at depressed, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/05/unemployment-rate-050611.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-2041" src="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/05/unemployment-rate-050611-300x168.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="168" /></a>Friday, the <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/topics/business/labor-department.htm">Labor Department</a> reported the economy added 244,000 jobs in April.</p>
<p>After adding 235,000 and 221,000 jobs in February and March, this should indicate the economy is finally accomplishing momentum; however, rising gas prices and sluggish consumer demand cloud the outlook. A surge in April first-time jobless claims indicate growth is stuck at depressed, first-quarter levels, and some businesses are growing more reluctant to hire.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate rose to 9%, as the <a id="KonaLink0" href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/05/06/jobs-report-upbeat-gains-continue/#"><span style="color: #0000ff">Labor Department&#8217;s</span></a> estimate of the working age population and labor force increased by some 146,000 and 15,000, respectively. Immigration may have played some role &#8212; warmer weather does encourage more border crossings to access work in the construction trade and agriculture</p>
<p>Gains from February through April were in sharp contrast to weaker jobs creation the previous 13 months, and largely resulted from stronger private sector jobs growth. </p>
<p>The economy began adding jobs in January 2010, but gained only 78,000 jobs a month through January 2011. Too many of those jobs were created by stimulus spending, temporary business services, and <a id="KonaLink1" href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/05/06/jobs-report-upbeat-gains-continue/#"><span style="color: #0000ff">health care</span></a> and social services, which are heavily subsidized by government reimbursements. Job gains in the core private sector-private employment less temporary business services, and health care social services and temporary business services, averaged only 49,000 a month.</p>
<p>Core private sector jobs are so important because those have the potential to set off a virtuous cycle of hiring, consumer spending and more hiring. In February, March and April, this barometer of private sector vitality gained 222,000, 158,000 and 229,000 new positions, respectively.</p>
<p>Similarly strong core private sector gains will be needed to continue adding 200,000 or more new jobs each month going forward and that would still not be enough to push <a id="KonaLink2" href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/05/06/jobs-report-upbeat-gains-continue/#"><span style="color: #0000ff">unemployment</span></a> down to acceptable levels.</p>
<p>The economy must add 13 million private sector jobs over the next three years &#8212; 360,000 each month &#8212; to bring unemployment down to 6%. Core private sector jobs must increase at least 300,000 a month to accomplish that goal.</p>
<p>Since the recovery began, the economy has expanding at a 2.8% annual rate. This is hardly enough to hold unemployment steady, because the working age population increases 1% a year, and productivity advances about 2%. Coming out of a deep recession, growth in the range of 4% to 5% is needed to get unemployment down to 6% over the next several years.</p>
<p>Continued dependence on high-priced foreign oil, the growing trade deficit with <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/topics/china.htm">China</a>, and health care and tax policies that penalize the location of businesses in the United States are responsible for slower jobs creation than has been accomplished during past recoveries.</p>
<p>Simply, more jobs could be created by drilling for more domestic oil now, which would keep money here that American drivers send to the <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/topics/politics/middle-east.htm">Middle East</a>; taxing dollar-yuan conversion to offset China&#8217;s undervalued currency and 35% subsidy on its exports; genuine <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/topics/politics/healthcare/health-care.htm">health-care reform</a> that lowers drug, insurance, administration and tort burdens rather than subsidizing a system that costs 50% more than private systems in Germany and elsewhere; and replacing the corporate <a id="KonaLink3" href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/05/06/jobs-report-upbeat-gains-continue/#"><span style="color: #0000ff">income</span></a> tax and elements of the personal income and <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/topics/business/finance/retirement/social-security.htm">social security</a> tax with a value-added tax.</p>
<p>By Peter Morici<br />
Published May 06, 2011<br />
FOXBusiness<br />
<a href="http://www.foxnews.com">www.foxnews.com</a></p>
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		<title>What&#8217;s going on?!</title>
		<link>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/whats-going-on/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Feb 2011 16:32:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Mortgage</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[“Don&#8217;t follow leaders / Watch the parking meters” Ah, the weather. In theory, it was largely to blame for the fact that far fewer of the unemployed in America put on their jackets and sought employment recently. Thus, our economy only produced 36,000 new jobs last month. Further, when the people doing the unemployment phone [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/02/Market-roller-coaster1.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-2017" src="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/02/Market-roller-coaster1.jpg" alt="" width="255" height="257" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2011/02/Market-roller-coaster.jpg"></a>“Don&#8217;t follow leaders / Watch the parking meters”</p>
<p>Ah, the weather. In theory, it was largely to blame for the fact that far fewer of the unemployed in America put on their jackets and sought employment recently. Thus, our economy only produced 36,000 new jobs last month.</p>
<p>Further, when the people doing the unemployment phone survey called folks and asked if they were employed, more of those who said, “No,” also said they weren’t actually looking for a job at the moment. (Thus, by the logic of this survey, they don’t count. They got snowed out, it seems—or maybe they were already just plain discouraged.)</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the weather has been used to help explain weak housing starts and declining construction spending. The weather can even (perhaps) be blamed, in part, for a good thing—the 42,000 decline in the number of applications for unemployment (to 415,000) in the week ending January 29.</p>
<p>Maybe we can no longer deny it: Economic reports are now slightly less reliable than weather reports.</p>
<p>What cannot be denied is this: Difficult weather has driven the entire world into a terrible food shortage problem. I mentioned last week that Egypt imports 60% of the wheat it consumes. In all, it imports about 40% of its total food needs and, where that was paid for in the past largely by the income from the oil it produced (that is, for oil the country didn’t itself need), geologists are now talking about “peak oil” in Egypt, a term indicating that the country’s oil consumption just surpassed its oil production. Egypt is now a net importer of oil, too. And it no longer has oil money to cover the difference in the cost of the food it must import to feed its hungry population.</p>
<p>The same is true—though the oil component differs from country to country—throughout a great deal of the Middle East. Plainly, food costs are rising (and yes, part of this phenomenon can be attributed to the weather). The people can no longer afford to feed themselves well. They are angry. It isn’t just a laudable idealistic urge toward democracy that is motivating the protestors into the streets of many of the Middle East’s nations.</p>
<p>An official report: “Global food prices rose for the seventh month in a row to a historic record in January, the United Nations said Thursday. The U.N.&#8217;s Food and Agriculture Organization&#8217;s Food Price Index—a commodity basket that tracks monthly changes in food prices around the world—surged 3.4% from December, the highest since FAO started measuring food prices in 1990….. ‘The new figures clearly show that the upward pressure on world food prices is not abating,’ said Abdolreza Abbassian, an FAO economist and grains expert. ‘These high prices are likely to persist in the months to come. High food prices are of major concern especially for low-income food deficit countries that may face problems in financing food imports and for poor households which spend a large share of their income on food,’ he added.”</p>
<p>One of the most obvious concerns here—especially when we also consider how metals and other commodities have been gaining in price—is inflation. Food prices in Egypt have already climbed by 21% this year. The rate of inflation has been rising nearly everywhere. Oddly, much of the investment world remains blind to this. U.S. Treasury secretary Geithner recently commented that inflation is “not high on the list of concerns” of his staff. Increasingly, though, it should be very high on my list and yours, as interest rates continue their gradual and steady march north.</p>
<p>Watch for rates to climb this week by another small bunch of basis points. And so it is likely to go until someone trips the panic wire and 4%-4.25% mortgages quickly fade into the distant corners of our memories. As Bob Dylan wrote years ago, “You don&#8217;t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”</p>
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		<title>2011 Forecast</title>
		<link>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/2011-forecast/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Dec 2010 17:35:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Mortgage</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[The present today is slipperier to evaluate than usual for an odd reason: it is so similar to the turn of last year. Hardly anything has changed. Interest rates are the same, near 5.00% for mortgages, near 3.50% for 10-year Treasurys, both expected to rise last year as now. The lack of employment is the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2010/12/recession_recovery_signs.jpg"></a><a href="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2010/12/recession_recovery_signs1.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-2008" src="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2010/12/recession_recovery_signs1-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a>The present today is slipperier to evaluate than usual for an odd reason: it is so similar to the turn of last year. Hardly anything has changed. Interest rates are the same, near 5.00% for mortgages, near 3.50% for 10-year Treasurys, both expected to rise last year as now. The lack of employment is the same, and so the dearth of tax revenue (our “thing to watch” at last New Year). The economy was then expected to accelerate in a recovery assumed to be underway, making the Fed’s QE1 and home-purchase tax-credits unnecessary, both to expire in spring 2010.<br />
    <br />
Those expectations were wrong, of course (and not found here), but are no impediment to forecasters today, who see the same acceleration underway. The economy is doing a little better now than in summer, but there is no new fuel for the domestic economy. In fact, compared to one year ago, headwinds are a bit stronger: the big stimulus of 2009 has washed out, leaving state and local budgets exposed; and housing is clearly in worse shape, and it is without any prospect for helpful policy intervention.<br />
    <br />
Other than non-recovery, the only two specific economic surprises in 2010: Europe fell into currency crisis, and Left-wing Democrats suffered an epic rout.<br />
    <br />
This peculiar stability begs a different kind of forecast. Sometimes an absence of visible change properly reflects an absence of underlying tension (1950s, mid-1980s to late 1990s&#8230;), and other times unsustainable trends are accumulating tension at, near, or past their breaking points but not yet broken. This forecast must also depart from the normal US-centric approach; economic globalization is happening at a pace beyond comprehension.<br />
    <br />
There are three large-scale unsustainables in play today, and all three will rupture; however, they are so very large that each could continue to build tension for years ahead. Stephen Hawking: “Time is what keeps everything from happening all at once.” Nevertheless, we have felt foreshocks from all three, and all are linked: Europe’s currency failure, US fiscal irresolution, and China’s trade manipulation and hyperbolic growth.<br />
    <br />
Europe. You can get in a nasty fight and called a racist for saying that culture matters; for denying Jared Diamond’s insistence (“Guns, Germs, and Steel”) that we are all the same people, that only geography, resources, and power matter; and get in bad trouble for arguing that national and regional cultures are durable over centuries.<br />
    <br />
We mediate the relative economics of cultures via currencies. The dreamy, one-world pretense of gold has never worked for more than a few decades, and then only among the richest nations, and then ended badly.<br />
    <br />
The currencies of the most productive cultures inevitably rise in value. They sell more things to others, and receive payment; as they receive payment, those who buy are less able to pay. They either buy less, or pay with currency debased in one way or another, worth less, and by that means buy less. That devaluation allows the weak to sell their own exports. Millennia-old truths.<br />
    <br />
The euro was an attempt at cultural unity where none existed. In one short decade the euro has become deutsche gelt, a continental prison that will not allow economic adjustment. The hyper-productive Germans run export surpluses inside Europe and out, euro-gelt pouring in, to be recycled as loans to the buyers of those exports. Payments on those loans must be made in euro-gelt, which the weak have no way to earn; their exports are locked into euro-gelt prices. To be competitive, the cost of their labor must deflate, and with it their domestic assets (homes, stocks), and their ability to make payments on loans foreign and domestic.<br />
    <br />
Europe has two ways out: true union or breakup. Germany could switch to a consumer economy and become a net importer from the rest of the euro-zone, and all 16 nations could surrender sovereignty and form one treasury, one parliament, one tax code, and one welfare system.<br />
    <br />
Ain’t gonna happen. Culture is durable.<br />
    <br />
Meanwhile, tension is building. Club Med cannot conceivably make payments on its current debt, and must reduce the balances owed by some form of default. Their IOUs are held by the banks of the rich, who are deep into pretense that these loans will be good. Everywhere in Europe a silent calculus is measuring the cost of continuing pretense versus breakup.<br />
    <br />
The moment of breakup will be painful, but will be mightily cleansing &#8212; just as all shifts from the fantastic to the rational. The longer that Europe waits, the more expensive and disruptive breakup will be.<br />
    <br />
US Deficit. Our last two Presidents have been the only ones in modern times to campaign to the center and attempt to govern from a wing. Both parties have focused on their extreme “bases” in a malignant Roveism. Very odd. This country has had only one durable base: the center.<br />
    <br />
In the two months since the wing-wipeout, both parties have come to their senses, competing for the center. The Left lost the seats this time, but the Right heard the warning. Our government has gotten more done in two lame-duck months than the rest of the Obama administration and a lot of the prior put together: tax-bracket extension, partial FICA suspension, sustained long-term unemployment benefits, ratified START, and repealed don’t-ask-don’t-tell.<br />
    <br />
Congress-wise Joe Biden was sent up to the Hill to cut the deals, and in brutal signal did not inform his party’s Left until after it was over. We have not enjoyed competence of that kind &#8212; both parties &#8212; since Bill Clinton cut the budget-balancing deal in ’93, trading pay-go spending discipline for tax increases.<br />
    <br />
Except for the Clinton moment, the US budget has been out of control since 1963. The entire country is worried about deficits to the point of economic paralysis, terrified for ourselves and our children. Everyone in the center understands that neither the Palin nor Pelosi wings will decide the terms, and knows that nobody will be happy with the specific sacrifices, and knows the end result of fiscal discipline is absolutely necessary.<br />
    <br />
When the people are moving, politicians elbow each other to follow.<br />
    <br />
China. The all-time black box. Churchill called Soviet Russia “A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma&#8230;.” China is so big and growing so fast that China itself cannot know what is happening to it.<br />
    <br />
Back to principles of trade and currencies. If you run a big trade surplus, sooner or later your currency will rise in value. You may deny, distort, contort, and delay, but sooner or later, upward revaluation is going to happen. Next, your avoidance maneuvers will have domestic consequences: you must put your wealth somewhere that it will not affect your currency, which makes you bubble-prone (see Japan). Also, if you peg your currency to another, you will import the other’s monetary policy: in this case, super-easy Fed policy brings to China overheating and inflation (note the reverse in Europe, in which German-driven tight monetary policy is crushing Club Med). Your certain-to-fail peg begets speculation, everyone trying to buy yuan-denominated assets to hold for the day that the yuan soars. That anticipatory scramble reinforces the bubble and inflation pressures.<br />
    <br />
Reports from China all through 2010 describe a wage-price spiral underway. Two laws and lessons, there: we have nothing to fear from inflation here because our wages are suppressed by foreign labor competition. China has nothing to suppress its wages. Second: once a capitalist economy enters a wage-price spiral, nothing will stop it except a recession. The longer you let inflation run without the pain, the worse the ultimate discomfort; but you can run it for a long time (see US, 1968-1980). China’s growth has been compounding at annual rates in excess of 10% for 20 years, the curve steepening beyond capacity some unknowable time ago.<br />
    <br />
I have no idea which of these three unsustainables will burst in 2011, if any, or all three. Each has a great deal of momentum behind it. See Japan, again: its unsustainable condition has run for 20 years, but will run on &#8212; in 2011 spending $1.1 trillion versus $490 billion in tax revenue, borrowing 96% of the rest from itself. The three instabilities described here are more immediate than Japan. When one does break, the whole globe will feel the consequence, which will be to slow the world economy and suppress inflation.<br />
    <br />
Beyond that suppression, resolution to these three over-stressed trends will be very good news indeed. Past them, we can look forward to the next stage of global commerce, and nothing in economic history has held so much promise for the standard of living and well-being of mankind.</p>
<p>by: Lou Barnes</p>
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		<title>In the news</title>
		<link>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/in-the-news/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Dec 2010 19:39:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Mortgage</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Americans received good news on the home front last week — the home sales front, that is. Sales of both existing and new homes for November enjoyed upward trends, according to respective reports from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) and the Census Bureau.   Sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops in November [...]]]></description>
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<td><a href="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2010/12/economic-recovery.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-1999" src="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2010/12/economic-recovery-225x300.jpg" alt="" width="195" height="259" /></a>Americans received good news on the home front last week — the home sales front, that is. Sales of both existing and new homes for November enjoyed upward trends, according to respective reports from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) and the Census Bureau.<br />
 <br />
Sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops in November rose 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in November, from 4.43 million in October, according to NAR, which chalked up the gains to improved home affordability.<br />
 <br />
&#8220;The relationship recently between mortgage interest rates, home prices and family income has been the most favorable on record for buying a home since we started measuring in 1970,&#8221; said Lawrence Yun, NAR&#8217;s chief economist. &#8220;Therefore, the market is recovering, and we should trend up to a healthy, sustainable level in 2011.&#8221;<br />
 <br />
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was a stable $170,600 in November, up only 0.4 percent from November 2009, which Economic Roundup readers might recall was the initial deadline for the federal first-time buyer tax credit that sparked a marked increase in real estate activity last year. Similarly, distressed homes have maintained a fairly stable market share, accounting for 33 percent of sales in November; they were 34 percent in October and 33 percent in November 2009.<br />
 <br />
Sales of new single-family homes in November hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 290,000, according to the Census Bureau, marking a 5.5 percent gain over October&#8217;s revised rate of 275,000.<br />
 <br />
The median sales price of new homes sold in November was $213,000, and the average sales price was $268,700. The estimate of new homes for sale at the end of November was 197,000, representing an 8.2-month supply.<br />
 <br />
Despite November&#8217;s gains, it&#8217;s important to note that November&#8217;s existing and new home sales performances still have a way to go before they match November 2009&#8242;s tax credit-inspired boomlet. November&#8217;s existing home sales were 27.9 percent below the cyclical peak of 6.49 million in November 2009, and new home sales for the month were 21.2 percent below November 2009&#8242;s estimate of 368,000.<br />
 <br />
Another key development last week was the news that consumer income and spending both enjoyed gains during November. The latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that personal income increased $42.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income increased $37.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November. Likewise, personal consumption expenditures increased $43.3 billion, or 0.4 percent.<br />
 <br />
Meanwhile, personal savings remained fairly stable, with November&#8217;s savings reaching $614.8 billion, compared with $622.8 billion in October. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 5.3 percent in November, compared with 5.4 percent in October.<br />
 <br />
This week will see a light financial news calendar thanks to the holidays, starting Tuesday with December&#8217;s consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. The index is expected to climb to a 56.1 from November&#8217;s 54.1.<br />
 <br />
On Thursday the Employment and Training Administration will report initial jobless claims for the week ending December 25. Hopefully, the number of job seekers will be reduced and their efforts will have been rewarded with employment for the holiday.<br />
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		<title>QE2 &#8211; More money from the gov&#8217;t?</title>
		<link>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/qe2-more-money-from-the-govt/</link>
		<comments>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/qe2-more-money-from-the-govt/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Oct 2010 15:49:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Mortgage</dc:creator>
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		<title>Stayed tuned for a brief service announcement from our President</title>
		<link>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/stayed-tuned-for-a-brief-service-announcement-from-our-president/</link>
		<comments>http://imrmortgage.com/economy/stayed-tuned-for-a-brief-service-announcement-from-our-president/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Oct 2010 17:33:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mr. Mortgage</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://imrmortgage.leadpress1.com/?p=1938</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a recent statement, president Obama emphasized the importance for a Wall Street reform after the big mess that was brought about by the foreclosure crisis. “We’ve seen problems in foreclosure proceedings – mistakes that have led to disruptions in the housing markets.  This is only one more piece of evidence as to why Wall [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2010/10/Broad_wallstreet.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-1939" src="http://imrmortgage.com/files/2010/10/Broad_wallstreet.jpg" alt="" width="160" height="120" /></a>In a recent statement, president Obama emphasized the importance for a Wall Street reform after the big mess that was brought about by the foreclosure crisis.</p>
<p>“We’ve seen problems in foreclosure proceedings – mistakes that have led to disruptions in the housing markets.  This is only one more piece of evidence as to why Wall Street reform is so necessary, ” the president explained.</p>
<p>“This was a bill designed to rein in the secret deals and reckless gambling that nearly brought down the financial system,” he added.</p>
<p>Although the Obama administration stood against the national moratorium on foreclosures claiming that this would do more harm than good, this does not mean they are not actively seeking a way to rescue the real estate market. However, it is hard to know if any of these reforms being considered will actually make a difference in the market. This is something that will only become apparent with time.</p>
<p>“The Obama Administration has a comprehensive review of the situation underway and will respond with the full force of the law where problems are found, ” reports indicate.</p>
<p>Any action directed to the real estate market at this point will lead to major changes. Foreclosures are all around us, and are affecting all of America.  At this point in history, foreclosures are becoming a big indicator on the economic situation we are at. In addition, foreclosures have caused political intrigue, and scandals, and that is why even the government needs to get involved when the economy finds itself fighting against the recent foreclosure mess.  It is not only that foreclosure have been going on at increasingly higher rates, but we also need to consider the effect that the latest fiasco will have on the growing anxiety already present in the real estate market.</p>
<p>If the presidents reform of Wall Street is anything similar to the reform in the lending industry, then we&#8217;re all in for a world of hurt.  While certain regulations should be in place, the act of being 100% involved in the industry, as the government has done in the mortgage lending industry, will create utter chaos and add to the difficulty of investing.</p>
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